College Admissions Trends 25-26
Recently, Murphy Miller, NACAC’s Director of Membership Experience and Global Engagement, shared timely insights with International College Counselors (ICC) advisors on the shifting landscape of college admissions. From application surges to testing policies and demographic changes, his message echoed the importance of data-driven decision-making and ethical practices, values that align closely with how ICC helps families navigate the college process, including the college admissions trends 25-26.
Rising Application Volumes
Since the pandemic, college applications have surged by 41%. Test-optional policies have encouraged students to apply more broadly—sometimes to 15–20 schools each. While domestic applications have grown, particularly among underrepresented minorities and first-generation students, international applications have stagnated after several years of strong growth. These shifts are reshaping the admissions landscape, leaving many universities less selective than in previous years.
At ICC, our team of expert advisors, drawing on more than 250 years of combined experience, helps families cut through the noise, ensuring students apply strategically rather than reactively.
Two Key Admission Myths and Realities
1. Test scores are the single most important factor in admissions decisions. In reality, curriculum rigor and academic consistency often weigh more heavily.
2. College is impossible to get into. Across the U.S., the average university admit rate is still about 73%, even though media headlines often emphasize hyper-selective institutions. Students submitting more applications per person has also created lower yield rates for colleges, intensifying the perception of scarcity. Yield rate refers to the percentage of admitted students who actually enroll, and as more students receive multiple offers, colleges are seeing fewer accepted students commit to attending their institution.
Keep in mind, although test-optional policies remain widespread, many institutions now favor (or even require) test scores in certain cases, especially when students can submit strong scores. This trend reflects a desire among some colleges to reclaim a more “predictable” metric in uncertain admissions environments, which is why students should weigh carefully whether submitting scores strengthens their application.
At ICC, we work to reframe this process for families: selectivity does not always equal quality or fit. Our counselors help students build balanced, thoughtful college lists—ones that reflect each student’s strengths, aspirations, and opportunities for success.
Enrollment and Testing Trends
Looking forward, demographic shifts are projected to reduce the pool of first-year prospects by 15%. Elite institutions may weather the decline, but many regional colleges will face enrollment challenges. More schools are leaning on early decision and early action plans to secure their classes. While a handful of universities are reinstating testing requirements, most remain test-optional.
Additional Trends in College Admissions We’ve Noticed
Beyond application surges, testing shifts, and enrollment patterns, several other developments are reshaping the admissions landscape. Families and counselors should be aware of these emerging trends:
AI and Automation in Admissions
As application volumes rise, some colleges are turning to machine learning and AI tools to help review and organize files. Predictive models are being tested to assess elements such as transcripts, essays, and extracurriculars. While these tools may increase efficiency, they also raise important questions around fairness, transparency, and the need for strong human oversight.
Growth in Public and State Universities
Flagship public universities, particularly in the South and Southwest, are seeing record numbers of applications. These institutions are becoming increasingly competitive as cost-conscious families recognize the value of strong state schools compared to private options.
Growth in Early Applications—and Rising Deferrals
During the 2024–2025 cycle, early admission applications continued to climb, with early action up 17% and early decision up 4% compared to the prior year, according to the Common App. Yet highly selective colleges that reinstated SAT/ACT requirements saw the opposite trend: Brown received 1,200 fewer early decision applications—its smallest pool in five years—and Yale reported a 14% drop in single-choice early action applications. At the same time, deferrals reached record levels. Vanderbilt increased deferrals by 60%, Yale deferred 20% of early applicants, and MIT deferred more than 8,000 applications. With more students being deferred rather than denied, it is increasingly important for applicants to understand each college’s policies for deferred students and to prepare strong letters of continued interest where permitted.
Increased Reliance on Waitlists
Because yield rates have become more difficult to predict, colleges are leaning more heavily on their waitlists. Many schools are deferring or waitlisting larger numbers of students, then admitting them later in the cycle as they adjust to actual enrollment behavior.
Demographic Shifts and Nontraditional Enrollment
With fewer high school graduates expected in the coming years, colleges are broadening their outreach to nontraditional and adult learners. Enrollment increases among 18- to 20-year-olds outside the typical fall start date also suggest students are looking for more flexible pathways into higher education.
Holistic Admissions and Institutional “Fit”
Admissions offices continue to emphasize a holistic review process, looking for applicants whose stories, experiences, and values align with institutional priorities. Highly selective schools in particular are prioritizing qualities such as resilience, leadership, and community engagement and not just academic metrics.
Affordability and Return on Investment
As tuition prices climb, families are asking harder questions about the value of a college degree. Institutions are responding by highlighting career outcomes, internship opportunities, and hands-on learning experiences to demonstrate a clear return on investment.
Shifting Policies and Legal Landscape
Recent changes in policies around affirmative action, legacy preferences, and diversity initiatives are forcing universities to adapt their admissions strategies. In some states, bans on legacy admissions or new equity requirements are reshaping how applications are reviewed.
Looking Ahead with International College Counselors
The admissions landscape is more complex than ever, blending rising application volumes, shifting demographics, and evolving testing policies. For students and families, this underscores the importance of moving beyond myths, embracing data, and focusing on institutions that truly fit their goals. For our ICC counselors, staying engaged with professional networks like NACAC ensures access to the latest resources, best practices, and upcoming opportunities to support students with clarity and confidence.
While the admissions landscape may feel more complicated than ever, with the right guidance, students can turn uncertainty into opportunity. At International College Counselors, our mission is to provide families with clarity in a crowded space. We ensure every student receives a tailored strategy that maximizes options and minimizes stress.
When applications, policies, and competition shift, ICC remains steady, helping students and families find the right path forward.
